Distance to native climatic niche margins explains establishment success of alien mammals

Abstract One key hypothesis explaining the fate of exotic species introductions posits that establishment a self-sustaining population in invaded range can only succeed within conditions matching native climatic niche. Yet, this remains untested for individual release events. Using dataset 979 173 mammal worldwide, we show climate-matching to realized niche, measured by new Niche Margin Index (NMI), is stronger predictor success than most previously tested life-history attributes and historical factors. Contrary traditional suitability metrics derived from distribution models, NMI based on niche margins provides measure how distant site inside or, importantly, outside Besides many applications research ecology evolution, as niche-matching risk assessments could improve efforts prevent invasions avoid costly eradications.